1 Introduction

Climate change is one of the most urgent challenges we face today, significantly affecting ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, biodiversity, and people's livelihoods (IPCC, 2022). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights that mountain regions are particularly at risk, experiencing higher levels of warming, rapid glacier retreat, decreasing snow cover, and an increase in extreme weather events like floods, droughts, and landslides (IPCC, 2022). South Asia is recognised as one of the most vulnerable regions globally, with predictions showing mean temperature increases between 3 °C - 5 °C and changes in rainfall patterns by the end of the century, especially under high-emission scenarios (World Bank, 2023). Since over 80% of agricultural land in this area relies on rainfall, the livelihoods of rural communities are heavily impacted by fluctuations in climate (FAO, 2021). These trends illustrate that the effects of climate change reach far beyond environmental concerns, threatening food security, income stability, and the social structures of vulnerable communities.

Nepal, located in the heart of the Himalayas, is often cited as one of the countries most affected by climate change. Its diverse yet fragile mountain ecosystems, combined with socio-economic challenges and a heavy reliance on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and livestock, increase its exposure to climate risks (MoFE, 2019). Agriculture plays a vital role in Nepal, engaging more than 60% of the population and contributing approximately a quarter of the country’s GDP (CBS, 2021). Unfortunately, agricultural productivity is highly sensitive to weather changes, particularly in mountainous areas with short growing seasons and limited irrigation options, which leave farmers with few safety nets. Recent findings are alarming: between 2000 and 2019, over 17% of municipalities in Nepal lost more than 20% of their cropland due to floods, landslides, and other climatic stressors (World Bank, 2023). These losses not only mean less production but also jeopardize the resilience of rural households.

Changes in climate patterns throughout Nepal further reinforce these concerns. Over the last few decades, the country has experienced rising average temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, and an increase in extreme weather events like floods, droughts, hailstorms, and unexpected snowfall (Shrestha et al., 2012; Dahal et al., 2021). These shifts are not just numbers in reports; farmers on the ground are witnessing and reporting these changes, as their livelihoods are closely intertwined with natural cycles (Paudel et al., 2014). In Jumla, for example, farmers frequently cite erratic rainfall, decreasing snowfall, delayed monsoon arrivals, and the emergence of new pests and diseases. The local apple industry, crucial for the district's economy, faces significant hurdles due to unpredictable frosts and insufficient chilling hours necessary for apple flowering and fruit setting. Similarly, staple crops like wheat, beans, and potatoes are more vulnerable than ever to shortened growing seasons and inconsistent water availability (Gentle and Thwaites, 2016). These challenges to agricultural production extend beyond the fields, affecting household food security, income, and overall community health.

Climate change in Nepal transcends environmental issues; it has significant socio-economic ramifications that disproportionately impact marginalised groups, including women and families lacking access to resources and climate information (Gentle and Maraseni, 2012; Aryal et al., 2014). Mountain communities have traditionally relied on indigenous knowledge and adaptive strategies—such as diversifying crops, shifting planting dates, and preserving seeds—to cope with weather variability. However, the pace and unpredictability of contemporary climate shifts are pushing these strategies to their limits (Gentle and Thwaites, 2016). Farmers are increasingly finding it necessary to adopt new crop varieties, experiment with protective cultivation techniques like polyhouses, adjust their planting and harvesting schedules, and diversify their income through wage labour or migration (Paudel et al., 2014).

One prominent response to these challenges is migration, which has become an important adaptation strategy in many rural areas of Nepal, including Jumla. Seasonal and permanent out-migration, especially among youth and skilled workers, has become common as families seek to mitigate climate-related risks and explore new income opportunities (Maharjan et al., 2013). Although remittances can provide crucial financial support for families facing climate shocks, the long-term sustainability of agriculture comes into question with the loss of human capital, labour shortages, and a decline in the intergenerational transmission of farming knowledge (Gentle and Thwaites, 2016). Thus, while migration offers a way to cope with immediate challenges, it also raises concerns about the future of agriculture and the preservation of traditional practices in Nepal (Table 1).

Table 1 Climate trends in the Himalayan region, Nepal (2020-2024) Note: Department of hydrology and meteorology

This study aims to analyze the current climate adaptation strategies employed by rural communities in Nepal, particularly in the context of changing climatic conditions and their socio-economic implications. The objectives include: To assess the vulnerabilities faced by agricultural sectors in Nepal due to climate change and how these are exacerbated by socio-economic factors, To evaluate the effectiveness of traditional coping strategies and their adaptation in the face of contemporary climate challenges, To identify and explore innovative adaptation strategies introduced in recent years based on both local knowledge and scientific advancements, To inform policy recommendations that support sustainable agricultural practices and enhance community resilience amid rising climate uncertainties. By understanding these dynamics, this study seeks to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of climate adaptation in Nepal's unique context and to guide effective strategies moving forward.

2 Materials and Methods

2.1 Study area

The study was conducted in Jumla District, located in the mountainous Karnali Province of western Nepal (29.2745° N, 82.1836° E). Jumla spans an elevation range of 1,600 to 6,100 meters above sea level, encompassing steep slopes, river valleys, and high-altitude plateaus. The district experiences a cold temperate to alpine climate, with mean annual temperatures ranging from 5 °C to 15 °C, and annual precipitation averaging 1,200 mm, predominantly during the monsoon season (June-September). Winters are long and harsh, often accompanied by snowfall at higher elevations.

Jumla’s economy is predominantly agrarian, with households relying on rain-fed subsistence agriculture, highland cash crops, and the collection of medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) for income. The district is particularly known for its apple orchards, alongside staple crops such as wheat, barley, beans, and potatoes. The combination of high-altitude, ecological fragility, and dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture makes Jumla highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. A map of Nepal District showing Jumla districts with local level is provided in Figure 1.

Figure 1 Map of study area

2.2 Study design

A cross-sectional, community-based survey design was employed to assess local perceptions of climate change, its impacts on agriculture and livelihoods, adaptation strategies, and support needs among rural households. A mixed-methods approach integrating quantitative and qualitative data was adopted to provide a comprehensive understanding of both measurable patterns and local experiences.

2.3 Sampling and participants

A purposive sampling method was used to select households based on their active involvement in agriculture or related activities, ensuring the inclusion of respondents with direct experience of climate impacts. Purposive sampling was chosen because it allows researchers to focus on informants with relevant knowledge of local farming systems, apple cultivation, and medicinal plant collection, which is critical for assessing adaptive practices.

A total of 56 households were selected from multiple wards and villages to reflect diversity in gender, age, education, ethnicity/caste, and occupation. The sample size was determined based on practical constraints, including accessibility in remote high-altitude areas, time, and logistical resources, while ensuring representation across key demographic and agro-ecological zones.

2.4 Data collection

Primary data were collected during March to June 2025. A structured questionnaire was developed after a literature review and consultation with local agricultural experts. The questionnaire was pre-tested on 8 households in neighbouring villages to ensure clarity, relevance, and cultural appropriateness.

Enumerators fluent in local languages received 3 days of training on survey objectives, ethical considerations, standardized interviewing techniques, and accurate recording of responses. Quality control measures included daily field supervision, random spot-checks of completed questionnaires, and verification of ambiguous responses through follow-up interviews.

The questionnaire mainly included Demographics - age, gender, education, occupation, household size, and ethnicity/caste; Agricultural practices - main crops, cropping calendar changes, yield trends, pest and disease incidence, adoption of new crop varieties, and changes in agricultural income; Medicinal and aromatic plant collection - species harvested, changes in availability, causes of scarcity, and contribution to household income; Climate change perception - awareness, observed changes, and perceived impacts on agriculture and livelihoods; Migration - patterns, destinations, reasons for migration, and effects on household income; Adaptation and support - received support, adaptation measures adopted, and unmet support needs.

2.5 Data management and analysis

Survey responses were entered and organized in Microsoft Excel. Quantitative data were summarized using descriptive statistics such as frequencies, means, and percentages. Qualitative responses were coded and analysed thematically to identify key patterns and insights. Cross-tabulations were used to explore relationships between demographic characteristics and perceptions or adaptation behaviours by using SPSS.

3 Result and Analysis

3.1 Demographic and socio-economic profile

Table 2 presents the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of respondents. The majority were male (69.64%) and of Chhetri ethnicity (62.5%), reflecting the social structure of Jumla District. Agriculture was the predominant occupation (69.64%), followed by limited participation in business/Hotel (14.28%) and government service (16.07%). Educational attainment was low: 23.21% of respondents were illiterate, and 42.85% had only primary education, underscoring restricted access to higher education in rural areas.

Table 2 Demographic and socio-economic characteristics

3.2 Major crops and agricultural dependence

Apple is the primary crop, cultivated by 69.6% of households. Other commonly grown crops include wheat (26.7%), beans (23.21%), and, to a lesser extent, potato (8.9%) and others like walnut and barley (16.07%). The dependence on apple as the main cash crop illustrates both economic specialization and vulnerability to climatic risks. While some households diversify their crops, the majority remain exposed to market and climate fluctuations (Table 3).

Table 3 Major crops grown by households

3.3 Perceptions and effects of climate change

Table 4 reveals that climate change is a universally acknowledged concern in the region. All respondents (100%) reported experiencing both temperature rise and erratic rainfall, while 92.82% noticed reduced snowfall. Additionally, 37.5% observed an increase in hailstone events, and 23.21% experienced drought. These climatic changes have direct implications for agricultural cycles and productivity.

Table 4 Climate change perceptions and observed changes

3.4 Changes in crop calendar and yield

All households (100%) reported changes in both the crop calendar and yield. Respondents noted shifts in planting and harvesting times, as well as unanimous yield reductions. These trends underscore how climate variability is impacting not only the timing but also the overall agricultural output, thereby threatening food and income security.

3.5 Pest and disease incidence

The survey results (Table 5) revealed that major production constraints across apples, beans, and potatoes were primarily due to fungal diseases rather than insect pests. In apples, papery bark canker was identified as the most severe problem, reported by 64.1% of respondents, ranking first among constraints, while apple thrips (25.64%) and woolly aphids (10.26%) were comparatively less important. Similarly, bean production was largely affected by anthracnose (61.53%), which ranked first, followed by pod borer (38.46%) as a secondary issue. In the case of potatoes, late blight emerged as the most critical challenge, with 80% of farmers identifying it as a major problem, making it the most severe constraint among all crops studied. Grub infestation was noted by 20% of respondents, ranking second but comparatively less damaging. Overall, the interpretation indicates that fungal diseases such as late blight in potato, papery bark canker in apple, and anthracnose in beans pose greater threats to crop production than insect pests, highlighting the urgent need for effective disease management strategies.

Table 5 Pest and disease incidence by crop

3.6 Adaptation strategies and innovation

Different adaptation strategies are adopted by the farmer to reduce climate change impact and to increase production (Table 6). The survey revealed that polyhouse use, training, and topworking (69.64%) were the most widely adopted practices, reflecting farmers’ preference for modern orchard management. Adoption of new apple varieties (32.14%) and high-density planting (30.35%) was also notable, while lentil/mustard replacing wheat (23.21%) and peach/nut introduction (16.07%) were less common. Overall, farmers prioritized technological improvements over diversification.

Table 6 Adoption of new crops, varieties, and adaptation practices

3.7 Medicinal plant collection and climate impacts

As seen in Table 7, 85.71% of total households collect medicinal plants, with Yarshagumba (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) being the most collected species (58%). 85% of herbs collectors reported changes in plant availability, either in quantity or location. This indicates that climate change is also impacting non-agricultural livelihoods by altering local biodiversity and increasing the labour required for collection.

Table 7 Medicinal plant collection and availability

3.8 Migration patterns and economic implications

The survey showed that migration was universal (100%) among farm households, with most family members migrating to Kathmandu (53.57%), followed by Surkhet (26.78%) and Nepalgunj (19.65%). Migration was mainly temporary (69.64%), while seasonal migration (30.35%) was less common. The primary reason for migration was education and market opportunities (76.78%), whereas lack of jobs (23.22%) was a secondary driver. Regarding its impact on household income, 46.42% reported a reduction, 30.35% an increase, and 23.23% no change, indicating that migration had mixed economic effects across households (Table 8).

Table 8 Migration patterns

3.9 Support systems and gaps

Table 9 shows that 77% of households received some form of support—mainly subsidies, training, and inputs such as polyhouses or seeds. Adaptation practices were used by 71.42%, but all respondents (100%) emphasised unmet needs, particularly in marketing, crop insurance, and irrigation. This gap underscores the inadequacy of current support to address comprehensive climate resilience.

Table 9 Support received and needed

3.10 Impact of climate change and other variables on migration and the availability of medicinal plants

The correlation analysis indicates strong interlinkages between climate change perception, medicinal plant availability, and household livelihood responses (Table 10). Larger households were more likely to collect medicinal plants, reflecting their higher resource needs and labour capacity. Education was positively associated with awareness of climate change, but negatively related to migration, suggesting that educated households are more capable of adapting locally. Climate change awareness was strongly correlated with perceptions of declining medicinal plant availability, highlighting the role of environmental change in resource scarcity. Income from medicinal plants was negatively correlated with both climate change awareness and migration, meaning that households facing reduced medicinal plant income were more likely to migrate. Overall, the findings suggest a feedback chain where climate change reduces medicinal plant availability, leading to declining income and eventually prompting migration, especially among vulnerable households.

Table 10 Correlation among key demographic, livelihood, and climate-related variables Note: *Significant at p < 0.05, **Significant at p < 0.01

4 Discussion

4.1 Interpretation and comparison

A significant positive relationship was observed between climate change awareness and the perception of declining medicinal plant availability. This indicates that households that report noticing climatic changes also experience reductions in the abundance and accessibility of medicinal plants. Such findings are consistent with studies by Kunwar et al. (2013), who reported that local communities in far-west Nepal linked changing rainfall patterns, drought, and temperature rise to declining medicinal plant populations. Likewise, Shrestha and Bawa (2014) documented that climate-induced habitat shifts are threatening alpine and subalpine medicinal species, reducing both their ecological range and harvestable supply. These observations underscore the vulnerability of traditional resource-based livelihoods to climatic variability in the Himalayan context.

The availability of medicinal plants was strongly correlated with household income from these resources, which is intuitive as greater access to plant resources enhances earnings. However, a negative relationship was observed between medicinal plant income and migration. This suggests that when availability declines and income diminishes, households are compelled to seek alternative livelihood opportunities outside their local area, often through migration. Gentle and Maraseni (2012) observed a similar pattern in rural Nepal, where declining natural resources due to climate change drove seasonal and permanent migration, particularly among economically vulnerable households.

Education emerged as another important factor influencing household adaptation responses. It was positively correlated with climate change awareness, suggesting that educated individuals are more capable of perceiving and interpreting environmental changes. Conversely, education was negatively related to migration, implying that better-educated households may diversify their livelihoods locally, adopt adaptation measures, or engage in off-farm income generation instead of relying on migration. This is in line with Regmi and Bhandari (2013), who argued that education enhances adaptive capacity by improving knowledge access, decision-making, and resilience to climate stress.

Household size was positively associated with dependence on medicinal plant collection. Larger households not only have greater consumption needs but also possess more labor to engage in harvesting activities. This supports the findings of Ghimire et al. (2005), who showed that household size directly influenced the scale of medicinal plant harvesting in Himalayan communities, often leading to increased pressure on natural resources.

The findings collectively point to a feedback loop in which climate change reduces the availability of medicinal plants, undermining household income and prompting migration. Education acts as a moderating factor by enhancing adaptive capacity, while a larger household size amplifies dependence on resource extraction. This dynamic mirrors the broader vulnerability framework described by Gentle and Maraseni (2012), where climate-induced livelihood insecurity exacerbates migration as a coping mechanism.

Thus, the study highlights not only the ecological impacts of climate change on medicinal plant resources but also their socioeconomic consequences for mountain households. This dual effect underscores the urgent need for integrated adaptation strategies that combine biodiversity conservation with livelihood diversification, ensuring that vulnerable households are not forced into migration due to resource scarcity.

4.2 Policy implications

The results highlight several actionable policy directions. First, since climate awareness is strongly linked with perceptions of resource scarcity, community-based biodiversity monitoring should be integrated into local adaptation programs to validate perceptions with ecological data. Second, the negative association between medicinal plant income and migration suggests that strengthening the medicinal plant value chain—through improved storage, certification, and equitable market linkages—can reduce household vulnerability. Third, given the widespread adoption of greenhouses and topworking in the district, policies should prioritize targeted technical support, including subsidies for greenhouse construction and training in pest and disease management, to maximize benefits. Finally, investment in rural education and vocational training is crucial, as education not only improves awareness but also reduces dependence on migration by enabling households to diversify locally.

4.3 Limitations and future recommendations

This study, while providing valuable insights into the perceptions and adaptation strategies of rural households facing climate change in Jumla District, is subject to several limitations. The relatively small sample size (n=56) and purposive sampling approach may not fully capture the diversity of experiences and responses across the entire district, potentially limiting the generalizability of the findings. Additionally, reliance on self-reported data introduces the possibility of recall bias and subjective interpretation, especially regarding climate trends and agricultural changes. For future research, it is recommended to expand the sample size and include a broader range of wards and socio-economic groups to enhance representativeness. Incorporating longitudinal data collection and integrating objective meteorological and agricultural yield records would strengthen the validity of the findings. Furthermore, future studies should explore gender-specific impacts, youth perspectives, and the effectiveness of specific adaptation interventions, as well as policy-level barriers and opportunities for scaling up successful local innovations.

5 Conclusion

This study highlights the significant ecological and socioeconomic impacts of climate change on rural households in Jumla District. All respondents (100%) reported rising temperatures and erratic rainfall, while 92.8% observed reduced snowfall, leading to major disruptions in crop calendars and declining yields. Apple, the district’s primary cash crop grown by 69.6% of households, was highly vulnerable to papery bark canker (64.1%), while beans and potatoes were severely affected by anthracnose (61.5%) and late blight (80%), respectively. Beyond agriculture, 85.71% of households reported collecting medicinal plants, with 85.41% of collectors noting reduced availability, underscoring the broader ecological stress affecting livelihoods, while most collector (58.33%) collects Yarshagumba (Ophiocordyceps sinensis).

The correlation analysis further revealed critical livelihood dynamics. Climate change awareness was strongly associated with perceptions of declining medicinal plant availability, while reduced availability was linked to diminished income from medicinal plants. Income decline, in turn, was negatively correlated with migration, suggesting that resource scarcity and income loss are driving mobility. Education played a dual role: it enhanced awareness of climate change but reduced dependence on migration, highlighting its potential as a buffer against climate-induced livelihood insecurity. Larger household size was also positively associated with dependence on medicinal plant collection, reflecting both increased needs and labour availability.

These findings point to a feedback loop where climate change erodes ecological resources, undermines household income, and compels migration. To break this cycle, integrated adaptation measures are essential. Policy efforts should prioritize strengthening the medicinal plant value chain, expanding technical support for greenhouse-based orchard management, and scaling up community-based monitoring of biodiversity and climate impacts. At the same time, investment in rural education and vocational training is critical to reduce reliance on migration and build adaptive capacity. By linking ecological sustainability with livelihood diversification, households in Jumla can become more resilient to the accelerating risks of climate change.

Authors’ contributions

PD conceived of the study, designed the research framework, and coordinated the overall work. NP conducted data analysis, performed the statistical interpretation, and contributed to manuscript drafting. KP and BN were responsible for survey design, data collection, and initial data entry. DS, NB and PC participated in the literature review and contributed to the interpretation of results. AS assisted in guiding, data visualisation, and manuscript editing. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Conflict of Interest Disclosure

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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